Analysis and Prospect Report on China's Live Hog, Layer and Broiler Market (2009-2010)

PART TWO  ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF LIVE HOG 5
2.1 China Live Hog Production 5
2.1.1 Live Hog Rearing Policies 5
2.1.1.1 Supporting policies of Live Hog Rearing 5
2.1.1.2 Regional Distribution Planning Of Live Hog Advantage Area2008-2015 5
2.1.1.3 Plan on Preventing Live Hogs price down excessively 6
2.1.1.4 Genetic Improvement Planning of Live Hog 6
2.1.2 Live Hog Inventory Increases Slightly 7
2.1.3 Fertile Sow Inventory Maintaining Stability 8
2.1.4 Regional Distribution of Live Hog Production 9
2.1.5 Proportion of Live Hog Scale-rearing Size Nearly 60% 10
2.2 Price Changes of China Live Hog Market 11
2.2.1 Live Hog Prices Changes Fall- Rise-Remain Stable 11
2.2.2 Piglet Prices Remain at RMB18-24/Kg 12
2.2.3 Live Hog Rearing Profits Fluctuate between RMB-150-150/Head 13
2.3 Analysis and Forecast of Live Hog Slaughter 14
2.3.1 Live Hog Slaughter Policies 14
2.3.2 Slaughtered Live hogs Continue to Increase 15
2.3.3 Live Hogs Slaughter Increase at Scaled and Licensed Slaughterhouses 15
2.3.4 Changes of Live Hogs Slaughter Profits at Scaled and Licensed Slaughterhouses 16
2.4 Analysis and Forecast of Live Hog InventoryPrice in 2010 17
2.4.1 Live Hog Inventory Maintaining Stability in 2010 17
2.4.2 Slaughtered Live hogs Will Increase in 2010 17
2.4.3 Live Hog prices will be relatively stable in 2010 18
2.5 Analysis and Forecast on Pork Import and Export 18
2.5.1 Pork Import 18
2.5.1.1 Fresh and Frozen Pork Imports Volume ReduceImport Prices Decline 18
2.5.1.2 Fresh and Frozen Pork Imports from U.S. Decrease Sharply 19
2.5.2 Live Hog Export 20
2.5.2.1 Live Hog Exports Volume Decrease Slightly, Price Steady 20
2.5.2.2 Live Hog mainly Export to Hong Kong and Macau 21
2.5.3 Fresh and Frozen Pork Export 22
2.5.3.1 Fresh and Frozen Pork ExportsVolume Reduce Sharply, Prices Decline Slightly 22
2.5.3.2 Fresh and Frozen Pork mainly Export to Hong Kong 22
2.5.4 China Pork Trade to Decline Slightly in 2010 23
2.6 Pork Supply and Demand 24
2.6.1 Pork Output Continues to Increase 24
2.6.2 Pork Demand 24
2.6.2.1 Pork Price in 2009 24
2.6.2.2 Pork Consumption Characteristics of Urban Households 25
2.6.2.3 Pork Consumption Characteristics of Rural Households 26
2.6.2.4 Pork Out Households Consumption Increase of Urban and Rural Residents 27
2.6.3 Pork Balance Between Supply and Demand 27

PART  THREE  ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF LAYER 28
3.1 China Breeding Layer Production1 28
3.1.1. Characteristics of Breeding Layer Introduction 28
3.1.1.1 Breeding Layer Introductions Decrease 28
3.1.1.2 HY-LINE VARIETY BROWN Introduction Exceeds 70% 28
3.1.1.3 Breeding Layer Import Form United States is about 73% 29
3.1.1.4 Enterprise of Breeding Layer Introduction 30
3.1.2 Domestic Production of Breeding Layer New Increase is More Than Imports 30
3.1.3 Inventoryof Breeding Layer Increase 30
3.1.4 Volume of Sales and Price of PS layers Decline 31
3.2 China PS layers Production 32
3.2.1 Inventory of PS Layers Increase 32
3.3 China CS layers Production 33
3.3.1 Inventory of Layers Decline 33
3.3.2 Regional Distribution of Layers Production 34
3.3.3 Proportion of Standardization breeding of Layers Continue to Improve 35
3.4 Analysis and Forecast on Changes of China Layer Price 35
3.4.1 Hen Eggs Price Takes on a Festive Feature 35
3.4.2 Culled Layer Prices Decline 36
3.4.3 Higher Layers Rearing Profits Around Festivals 37
3.4.4 Hen Eggs Price to Rise in 2010 38
3.5 Analysis and Forecast of Import and Export of Poultry Eggs 38
3.5.1 Eggs With Shell Export 38
3.5.1.1 Eggs With Shell Export Decline7.31% 38
3.5.1.2 Share of Fresh Hen Eggs accounting for 80% of the total export of poultry eggs 39
3.5.1.3 Eggs With Shell Mainly Export to Hong Kong 40
3.5.2 Egg Products Without Shell Export 41
3.5.2.1 Egg Products Without Shell Export Volume decline20% 41
3.5.2.2 Egg Products Without Shell Mainly Export to Hong Kong and Japan 42
3.6 China Poultry Eggs Supply and Demand 43
3.6.1 Poultry Eggs Supply 43
3.6.1.1 Poultry Egg Output Remained Stable 43
3.6.1.2 Poultry Eggs Production Structure 44
3.6.2 Poultry Eggs Demand 45
3.6.2.1 Hen Eggs Retail Price Rise in 2009 45
3.6.2.2 Poultry Eggs Consumption Continue to Increase 45
3.6.2.3 Poultry Eggs Consumption Characteristics of Urban Households 46
3.6.2.4 Poultry Eggs Consumption Characteristics of Rural Households 47
3.6.2.5 Rateof Urban and Rural Households Poultry Meat Consumption Narrow 48

PART FOUR  ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF BROILER 49
4.1 China Broiler Production 49
4.1.1 Breeding Broiler Introductions 49
4.1.2 PS Broiler and CS Broiler Inventory Increase 49
4.1.3 Regional Distribution of Broiler Production 50
4.2 Analysis and Forecast on Changes of China Broiler Price 51
4.2.1 Broiler Prices in Main Production Areas Exceed 10% Declining from 2008 51
4.2.2 Day Old Broiler Prices Rise to peak at RMB2.50/Bird in Mar. and Aug. 52
4.2.3 Broiler Rearing Profits averaged RMB1.0/Bird 53
4.2.4 Broiler Price to Rise Slightly in 2010 54
4.3 Analysis and Forecast on Import and Export of Poultry Meat 54
4.3.1 Poultry Meat Import 54
4.3.1.1 Poultry Meat Imports Decline 54
4.3.1.2 Frozen Chicken Paw Imports Accounte for 52% of total China Poultry Meat Imports 55
4.3.1.3 China Poultry Meat Import Volume Form United States Rise to about 82.5% 55
4.3.2 Poultry Meat Export 56
4.3.2.1 Poultry Meat Exports Increase Slightly 56
4.3.2.2 Poultry Meat Mainly Export as Whole Chicken and Frozen Cut Chicken 57
4.3.2.3 Poultry Meat Mainly Export to Hong Kong and Malaysia 58
4.4 China Poultry Meat Supply and Demand 59
4.4.1 Poultry Meat Supply 59
4.4.1.1 Poultry Meat Output Increase Slightly 59
4.4.1.2 Poultry Meat Output Structure 60
4.4.2 Poultry Meat Demand 60
4.4.2.1 Chicken Price in 2009 60
4.4.2.2 Poultry Meat Consumption Continue to Increase 61
4.4.2.3 Poultry Meat Consumption Characteristics of Urban Households 62
4.4.2.4 Poultry Meat Consumption Characteristics of Rural Households 62
4.4.2.5 Comparison Between Urban and Rural Households Poultry Meat Consumption 63

PART FIVE  CHINA MEAT BALANCE BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND 64
5.1 Meat Supply 64
5.1.1 Meat output Continue to Increase 64
5.1.2 Beef Output Increase Slightly 64
5.1.3 Mutton Output Increase Slightly 65
5.1.4 Meat Output Structure 66
5.2 Meat Demand 66
5.2.1 Meat Consumption 66
5.2.2 Meat Consumption Structure 67
5.3 Meat Balance Between Supply and Demand 68

FIGURE CONTENTS
Fig 1.1, Changes of China Industrial Feed Output,2001-2009 2
Fig 1.2, Structure of Live Hog Feed Product, 2001-2009 3
Fig1.3, Structure of Layers Feed Product, 2001-2009 3
Fig 1.4, Structure of Broiler Feed Product, 2001-2009 4
Fig 1.5, Price of Corn and Soybean Meal, 2007-2009 4
Fig 2.1, China Live Hog Inventory, 1990-2009 8
Fig 2.2, China Fertile Sows Inventory, 1990-2009 9
Fig 2.3, China Regional Structure of Live Hog Slaughter Over the past 10 years 10
Fig 2.4, China Regional Structure of Live Hog Inventory/ Slaughter, 2008 10
Fig 2.5, Breeding Scale of China Live Hogs Production, 1998-2009 11
Fig 2.6, Live Hog Prices of Main Provinces, 2007-2009 12
Fig 2.7, Piglet Prices of Main Provinces, 2007-2009 13
Fig 2.8, Rearing Profits Changes in Self-sutained and Purchase Live hoglets, 2007-2009 14
Fig 2.9, China Live Hog Slaughter, 1990-2009 15
Fig 2.10, China Slaughtered Live Hogs of Scaled and Licensed Slaughterhouses, 2008-2009 16
Fig 2.11, Ex-foctory Price Differences between Live Hog and Halved Carcass from Scaled and Licensed Slaughterhouses, 2008-2009 17
Fig 2.12, China Fresh and Frozen Pork Imports Volume and Price, 2000-2009 19
Fig 2.13, China Fresh and Frozen Pork Imports by Original Country, 2000-2009 20
Fig 2.14, China Fresh and Frozen Pork Imports by Original Country, 2009 20
Fig 2.15, China Live Hog Export Volume and Price, 2000-2009 21
Fig 2.16, China Fresh and Frozen Pork Imports by Country of Destination, 2000-2009 21
Fig 2.17, China Fresh and Frozen Pork Exports Volume and Price, 2000-2009 22
Fig 2.18, China Fresh and Frozen Pork Export Volume by Country of Destination, 2000-2009 23
Fig 2.19, China Fresh and Frozen Pork Export Volume by Country of Destination, 2009 23
Fig 2.20, China Pork Output, 1990-2009 24
Fig 2.21, China Pork Retail Price of Bazaar and Supermarket, 2006-2009 25
Fig 2.22, Per Capita Pork Consumption of China Urban Households, 1985-2009 26
Fig2.23, Relationship Between Per Capita Pork Consumption and Income of China Urban Residents, 1996-2008 26
Fig2.24, Per Capita Pork Consumption of China Rural Households, 1978-2008 27
Fig3.1, Breeding Layer Introduction Volume, 2005-2009 28
Fig3.2, Breeding Layer Introduction species, 2008-2009 29
Fig3.3, Main Country of Breeding Layer Introduction form, 2008-2009 29
Fig3.4, New Increase Volume of Breeding layer 30
Fig3.5, Inventory of breeding layers of grandparent generation of the 22 breeding bird production enterprises, monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture 31
Fig3.6, Sales quantity of chicks of parent generation of the 22 companies monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture 31
Fig3.7, Priceof chicks of parent generation of the 22 companies monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture 32
Fig3.8, Inventory of breeding birds of parent generation of the 22 companies monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture 33
Fig3.9, Inventory of Layers, 2008-2009 33
Fig 3.10, China Regional Structure of Poultry Egg Output Over the past 10 years 34
Fig 3.11, China Regional Structure of Poultry Egg Output, 2008 35
Fig 3.12, Scale Structure of Layers Faming, 2009 35
Fig 3.13, Hen Egg Prices Changes of Main Provinces, 2008-2009 36
Fig 3.14, Culled Layer Prices Changes of Main Provinces, 2008-2009 37
Fig 3.15, Layers Rearing Profits of Main Provinces in China, 2008-2009 38
Fig 3.16, China Eggs With Shell Export VolumePrice, 2000-2009 39
Fig 3.17, China Eggs With Shell Export Volume by Variety, 2000-2009 40
Fig 3.18, China Eggs With Shell Export Volume by Variety, 2009 40
Fig 3.19, China Eggs With Shell Export Volume by by Country of Destination, 2000-2009 41
Fig 3.20, China Eggs With Shell Export Volume by by Country of Destination, 2009 41
Fig 3.21, China Egg Products Without Shell Export Volume and Price, 2000-2009 42
Fig 3.22, China Egg Products Without Shell Export Country of Destination, 2000-2009 43
Fig 3.23, China Egg Products Without Shell Export Country of Destination, 2009 43
Fig 3.24, China Poultry Egg Output, 1990-2009 44
Fig 3.25, China Poultry Egg Output Structure, 2009 44
Fig 3.26, China Fresh Hen Egg Retail Price of Supermarket and Bazaar, 2006-2009 45
Fig 3.27, Per Capita Poultry Egg consumption of China, 1952-2009 45
Fig 3.28, Per Capita Poultry Egg consumption of China Urban Households, 1985-2009 46
Fig 3.29, Relationship Between Per Capita Poultry Egg Consumption and Income of China Urban Residents, 1996-2008 47
Fig 3.30, Per Capita Poultry Egg consumption of China rural Households, 1978-2009 47
Fig4.1, Broiler Breeder Introduction Volume, 1997-2008 49
Fig4.2, Raising Amount of PS Broiler and CS Broiler, 1997-2009 50
Fig 4.3, China Regional Structure of Poultry Meat Output Over the past 10 years 50
Fig 4.4, China Regional Structure of Poultry Meat Output, 2008 51
Fig 4.5, Broiler Prices of Main Provinces in China, 2008-2009 52
Fig 4.6, Day Old Broiler Prices of Main Provinces in China, 2008-2009 53
Fig 4.7, Broiler Rearing Profits of Main Provinces in China, 2008-2009 53
Fig 4.8, China Poultry Meat Imports Volume and Price, 2000-2009 54
Fig 4.9, China Poultry Meat Imports by Variety, 2009 55
Fig 4.10, China Poultry Meat Imports by Original Country, 2000-2009 56
Fig 4.11, China Poultry Meat Imports by Original Country, 2009 56
Fig 4.12, China Poultry Meat Exports Volume and Price, 2000-2009 57
Fig 4.13, China Poultry Meat Export Value by Variety, 2009 57
Fig 4.14, China Poultry Meat Exports by Country of Destination, 2000-2009 58
Fig 4.15, China Poultry Meat Exports by Country of Destination, 2009 59
Fig 4.16, China Poultry Meat Output, 1990-2009 59
Fig 4.17, China Poultry Meat Output Structure 60
Fig 4.18, China Broiler and Chicken Retail Price of Supermarket and Bazaar 61
Fig 4.19, Per Capita Poultry Meat consumption of China ,1958-2009 61
Fig 4.20, Per Capita Poultry Meat consumption of China Urban Residents,1998-2008 62
Fig 4.21, Per Capita Poultry Meat Consumption of China Rural Households, 1988-2008 63
Fig 5.1, China Meat Output, 1990-2009 64
Fig 5.2, China Beef Output, 1990-2009 65
Fig 5.3, China Mutton Output, 1990-2009 65
Fig 5.4, China Meat Output Structure 66
Fig 5.5, Per Capita Meat Consumption of China rural and Urban residents by Region, 1996-2008 67
Fig 5.6, China Meat Consumption Structure 67

ATTACHED TABLES
Table 1, Plan on Preventing Excessive Decline of Pig Price 69
Table 2, China Live Hog Inventory by Province (2006-2009) 71
Table 3, China Fertile Sow Inventory by Province (2006-2009) 72
Table 4, Price Changes of China Live Hog and Live hoglet in Main Provinces (2007-2009) 73
Table 5, Ex-farm Price of Live Hog by Month in China (2008-2009) 73
Table 6, Ex-farm Average Price of Whole Country of Live hoglet by Month in China(2008-2009) 73
Table 7, China Live Hog Slaughter by Province ( 2006-2009) 74
Table 8, China Live Hog Inventory Forecast 75
Table 9, China Live Hog Slaughter Forecast 76
Table 10, China Fresh and Frozen Pork Imports by Original Country/Region (2005-2009) 77
Table 11, China Fresh and Frozen Pork Exports by Country/Region (2005-2009) 77
Table 12, China Live Hog Exports by Country /Region of Destination (2005-2009) 77
Table 13, China Pork Output by Province (2006-2009) 78
Table 14, China Pork Supply and Demand Balance Statement 79
Table 15, Egg Breeder Introduction Volume and Species of Main Enterprise in 2009 79
Table 16, Price Changes of China Hen egg and Culled Layer in Main Province (2008-2009) 80
Table 17, Ex-farm Average Price of Whole Country of Egg by Month in China (2008-2009) 80
Table 18, Ex-farm Average Price of Whole Country of Culled Layer by Month in China (2008-2009) 80
Table 19, China Shelled Eggs Exports by Variety (2005-2009) 81
Table 20, China Shelled Eggs Exports by Country (2005-2009) 81
Table 21, China Hulled Eggs Products Exports by Country (2005-2009) 82
Table 22, China Poultry Egg Output by Province (2006-2009) 82
Table 23 Per-capita Consumption Proportion of Eggs by Urban Households & by Rural Residents 83
Table 24, China Poultry Slaughter by Province (2006-2009) 84
Table 25, Broiler and Day Old Broiler Prices of Main Provinces in China (2008-2009) 84
Table 26, Ex-farm Average Price of Whole Country of Day Old Broiler by Month in China (2008-2009) 85
Table 27, Ex-farm Average Price of Whole Country of Broiler by Month in China (2008-2009) 85
Table 28, China Poultry Meat Imports by Variety (2008-2009) 85
Table 29 , China Poultry Meat Imports by Original Country, (2005-2009) 86
Table 30, China Poultry Meat Output by Province (2006-2009) 86
Table 31, China Poultry Meat Exports by Variety (2008-009) 87
Table 32, China Poultry Meat Exportsby Country of Destination (2005-2009) 87
Table 33, Per-capita Consumption Proportion of Poultry Meat by Urban Households & by Rural Residents 87
Table 34, China Meat Output by Province (2006-2009) 88
Table 35, China Beef Output by Province (2006-2009) 89
Table 36, China Cattle Inventory by Province (2006-2009) 90
Table 37, China Cattle Slaughter by Province (2006-2009) 91
Table 38, China Mutton Output by Province, (2006-2009) 92
Table 39, China Goat Inventory by Province (2006-2009) 93
Table 40, China Mutton Inventory by Province (2006-2009) 94
Table 41, China Sheep Inventory by Province (2006-2009) 95
Table 42, China Sheep Slaughter by Province (2006-2009) 96
Table 43, China Meat Supply and Demand Balance Statement 97